Mathematical modelling is broadly used to justify restrictive measures implemented to prevent infection transmission and ultimately death. Some studies recently published show insufficient data, forgetting to include the sudden rise in the number of infections expected after the lifting of measures.
“Once transmission rates return to normal, the epidemic will proceed largely as it would have without mitigations, unless a significant fraction of the population is immune (either because they have recovered from the infection or because an effective vaccine has been developed), or the infectious agent has been completely eliminated, without risk of reintroduction.”
– Wesley Pegden, associate professor, Department of mathematical Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University
Maria Chikina, Wesley Pegden, A call to honesty in pandemic modeling, Medium Magazine, March 29, 2020